Ghost-number of follicles question

[Klm]

I have a friend who is going through her first IVF due to male factor. Her estradiol has been low throughout, but just went up to 1300 so that's good. She's been on follistem. She had her final scan today and has 6 mature (size 19 and 20) follicles. She's supposed to do the ovidrel shot tonight and have retrieval on Tuesday. She is worried that her chances are low because all along they've said they hope for 7-12 follicles. How low are her chances? Should she be worried and/or cancel this round? Thanks.

[Ghost]

I have a friend who is going through her first IVF due to male factor. Her estradiol has been low throughout, but just went up to 1300 so that's good. She's been on follistem. She had her final scan today and has 6 mature (size 19 and 20) follicles. She's supposed to do the ovidrel shot tonight and have retrieval on Tuesday. She is worried that her chances are low because all along they've said they hope for 7-12 follicles. How low are her chances? Should she be worried and/or cancel this round? Thanks.

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Her chances are certainly better if she proceeds than if she cancels.

I can't begin to guess her chances without more info about her and her cycle. How old is she? When did she start stim? What was her stim protocol? Any prior pregnancies and/or live births? That's a start.

[Klm]

She is 30 and no prior pregnancies or births. She started stimming on Friday, July 23rd. Her protocol was first 5 days follistem 200 units at night. Then the 28th and 29th she did 150 at night and 150 in the morning. The 30th and 31st and 1st was 200 at night and 150 in the morning.

[lou71]

Klm -- My first cycle I had an E2 of 1200 and retrieved 6 eggs, 5 of which were mature, 4 fertilized, and 3 grew to be perfect 8 cell embies by day three. I did get a BFN but RE thought my chances were around 40% that cycle, which is good in the IVF world for a 36 year old woman! My second cycle, my E2 was 1100 and I got 7 eggs, 4 of which were mature, and 3 grew to be slightly fragmented 8 cell embies by day 3. RE gave me a 30% chance. I got a BFP! Unfortunately I miscarried at 12 weeks. Now I am on fresh cycle #3. I am having ER on Tuesday which means I trigger tonight. My E2 is 1530 and I have 9 follicles between 13 & 21 mm on a 3D ultrasound (measure's about 2 mm smaller than a 2D). I'm hoping to get around 7 mature eggs, my best chances yet! It seems that for each mature egg, you get about 200 of estrogen. But that the follicles between 10 & 14 which are likely immature, will contribute some too. Your friend probably has approx 6 mature eggs to work with. That's really not that bad! Good luck to her.

[Ghost]

She is 30 and no prior pregnancies or births. She started stimming on Friday, July 23rd. Her protocol was first 5 days follistem 200 units at night. Then the 28th and 29th she did 150 at night and 150 in the morning. The 30th and 31st and 1st was 200 at night and 150 in the morning.

Just some wild guesses, but she has about a 90% chance of making it to a transfer. If she gets two blasts of decent quality transferred, look for a pregnancy rate of around 70% and a live birth rate of about 50-60%. If they transfer on day 3, then the rates will be somewhat less. Those are very rough guesses.

[Klm]

Thank you Lou and Guest! My friend feels much better now.